1. We have indicated above that the crisis lasts for about 2 years. Quarantine measures do not last for years. Remember that the periods of forecasting, planning and tracking of key business indicators change during a crisis. For example, in order to avoid cash gaps, now a cash flow forecast in a company needs to be prepared every week. If the company has a shortage of funds - every day. And this is for the entire period of the crisis, not just quarantine! 2. Forecasts.
Quarantine is a force majeure situation. Have you noticed that any contract has a force majeure clause? It talks about the epidemiological threat as well. Consulting company Boston Consulting Group has published a forecast according to which the peak of the epidemic is still ahead. The study was based on reports on the activities of governments of different countries in connection with the spread of the epidemic. According to the authors of the study, the most difficult time for Europe and the American continent will come at the end of April-May. Accordingly, the quarantine will end no earlier than the beginning of July. But it is impossible to predict when companies in different industries will be able to return to full operation. Epidemics and pandemics are almost impossible to predict in advance. A crisis is a completely predictable situation. The global economic crisis occurs on average every 10-13 years. Moreover, it never comes suddenly. It is preceded by a number of events that suggest the approach of a crisis: a collapse in the oil market, a fall in the index of industrial metals, the appearance on the market of unsupported financial securities. The only question is what will be the trigger. 3. Reasons.
The quarantine is caused by the spread of the disease. A crisis is an economic phenomenon that can be provoked by anything: natural disasters, economic imbalances, political conflicts, etc. In 2008, the trigger was the bankruptcy of the investment bank Lehman Brothers, in 2020 - the coronavirus infection pandemic.
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